…We are quick to forget that just being alive is an extraordinary piece of good luck, a remote event, a chance occurrence of monstrous proportions.
Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of the earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favour of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don’t be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worried about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth – remember that you are a Black Swan.”— Nassim Taleb
— Bill Bonner
Whether you are looking at the big picture or the little picture, it is important to remember that what you see is only a very small part of the whole thing. And the picture is likely to be distorted in many different ways.
The media, the financial industry, regulators – all have their own agenda, motivations, and favored narratives. What we see has already been refracted through several lenses. But the most dangerous distortions appear in the light we bend ourselves to fit our own prejudices, delusions, and desires.”
So, it really was a decision that I had to make for myself, and the framework I found which made the decision incredibly easy was what I called — which only a nerd would call — a “regret minimization framework.” So, I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, “Okay, now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have.” I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn’t regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision. And, I think that’s very good. If you can project yourself out to age 80 and sort of think, “What will I think at that time?”
— Shane Parrish from collaborativefund.com
I’m going to give three answers to this. First, we’re not talking enough about great people doing great things in the right way — be it in the broader world or the local community. Our attention is trending towards the negative and not the positive. I’d like to see that reversed. Second, and somewhat related, we’re becoming adverse to thinking for ourselves and we’re increasingly outsourcing that to other people. We don’t want to do the work and we want other people to tell us. But it’s often through doing the work that we really reach deep understanding and find meaning. Finally, I don’t think we’re asking the internal questions about what it means to live a good life and how we should live.
From “10 Things Your Pastor Wants to Tell You.” P. 7
Religion deals with what theologian Paul Tillich called ‘ultimate concerns’ — abstract philosophical questions such as what the nature of life is and why we are here. Religion seeks meaning, purpose, and moral truth, not physical knowledge.
Science, on the other hand, seeks to understand the natural, observable world around us. Unlike religion or philosophy, the claims of science are falsifiable. That is to say, they are capable of being proven or disproven. Scientific progress is only made as its hypothesis are rigorously tested, analyzed, and refined.
While science asks us to accept nothing on faith, religion asks little else. No one can prove whether there is one God or many gods or whether God’s spirit is alive in a particular human being, but we can most certainly prove whether the earth is six thousand years old or six billion years old. In short, science is an essential tool to understanding the world in which we live. Science cannot, however, tell us how to live or answer our ultimate questions.
As dominant as science has become in our world, we might be tempted simply to discount anything that is impervious to its probing finger, including religion, but that would be a mistake. The truth is that the things we care about most deeply — starting with love — lie beyond the reach of science.
Consider again the question of origins. If, for example, scientists are able to take us back to a big bang, nagging questions remain. Why did it all happen in the first place? For what purpose? What does it all mean? How should we then live? Only the philosophers and theologians can help us here.
Occasionally scientists venture outside their discipline and into the realm of theology. Carl Sagan was guilty of this when he opined that the cosmos ‘is all there was, is, or ever will be.’
Says who? Or, better yet, prove it!
When scientists give in to the temptation to address ultimate concerns, the result is ‘scientism’ — philosophy masquerading as science. Sagan’s statement is no more scientific than that of the fundamentalist preacher who claims that God created the universe in six twenty-four hour days.
Similarly, religion can masquerade as science. Consider the Christians who ask public schools to give ‘balanced treatment’ to creationism and evolution. Creationism is not an alternative scientific theory. It is a nonfalsifiable claim that a divine being intervened in the natural order to create life. Calling a cow a billy goat doesn’t make it one, and calling creationism ‘intelligent design’ doesn’t make it any less religious. It’s still a nonfalsifiable claim that a supernatural force (which by definition is one coming from outside the natural order) accounts for life on earth. Intelligent design is just creationism in a suit.
When science and religion stick to their respective realms, all of society benefits. Science helps us understand the world around us, and religion helps us make sense of it all.
In this case, good fences really do make good neighbors.”
— Bill Gates
Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”
— Jeff Bezos
If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that. Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue.
In some cases, things are inevitable. The hard part is that you don’t know how long it might take, but you know it will happen if you’re patient enough.”
— African Proverb
If you want to go fast go alone, if you want to go far go together.”
Amos Tversky from “The Undoing Project” p. 155
[Amos] had decided pessimism was stupid. When you are a pessimist and the bad thing happens, you live it twice. Amos liked to say, Once when you worry about it, and the second time when it happens.”
Amos Tversky from “The Undoing Project – A Friendship that Changed our Minds” p. 98
The nice thing about things that are urgent is that if you wait long enough they aren’t urgent anymore.”